MLB Narrative Bracket: Wildcard Edition [UPDATED]
Youth, phenoms, injuries and vibes from the opening week of a wide-open field.
[UPDATE:] On the Friday between the Wildcard and Division Series, I coped with zero baseball games by updating the story portions to reflect the results of this week’s postseason action.
The 12-team MLB postseason tournament gives playoff hopefuls a chance to find their identities somewhere in the six-month season. They don’t need to be the best from start to finish. Their full record gets them in, but any part of the 162-game schedule could be the stretch that defines the season.
On opening day for the Wildcard Series, here’s the run of games that shows the nature of each team playing this week. Two of them are defined by their season-long success. Every other team has a line drawn between who they were and who they are (well, the Orioles might want to reverse that).
Detroit Tigers // Record after Aug 11: 30-13
The Tigers traded starter Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers at the deadline, released third baseman Gio Urshela, and shelved shortstop Javy Baez. FanGraphs had their playoff odds at 0.2% on August 5 and 11. They went with a young roster, and it just kept working.
In their clinching win, the Tigers used one player over 30. Their starting lineup averaged 25.89 years old. The five pitchers who combined for a bullpen game: 27.4.
The story if they beat the Astros: prospects can turn to gold quicker than expected [update] and this bizarre, budget-friendly phoenix of a team with a Cy Young favorite and a bunch of bullpen games doesn’t make a lot of sense but they keep winning games.
Houston Astros // Record after June 18: 55-33
Houston fell 10 games behind the Seattle Mariners last n June 18. And yet, here they are: the third seed, AL West champs for the fourth straight year and seven of the last eight. “Astros 🤝playoffs” looked like it was in jeopardy, but the organization knows how to win. Only second baseman Jose Altuve, third baseman Alex Bregman, and starter Lance McCullers Jr remain from the first Astros team of this generation to make the playoffs. The manager, the front office, and the roster are almost entirely different. But once again, the Houston Astros enter the postseason fray.
The story of they beat the Tigers: organizational principles can overcome personnel turnover at from the field to the front office.
The story after they lost to the Tigers: the astounding seven-year run to the ALCS ends, third baseman Alex Bregman is a free agent, Justin Verlander is 41, but the AL West isn’t exactly brimming with big-money contenders waiting to take the Astros down a notch. They’ll be back, but in what form?
Kansas City Royals // Record after 106 losses in 2023: 86-76
They have a captain who will have his number retired in Kansas City (World Series champ Salvador Perez). They have a phenom who became the first shortstop with multiple 30/30 seasons and would win MVP if not for Aaron Judge (former second-overall pick Bobby Witt Jr.). They have a slew of acquisitions that transformed a team with triple-digit losses into a consistent contender (SPs Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Michael Lorenzen; CP Lucas Erceg; IF Paul DeJong; OFs Hunter Renfroe and Tommy Pham). While slugger Vinnie Pasquantino missed the last six weeks with a broken hand, the captain, the phenom and the new guys held onto a wildcard spot. Now The Pasquatch returns to the postseason lineup.
The story if after they beat the Orioles: investing in your team via all means leads to positive results [update], Witt, who drove in both winning Wildcard runs, faces off against his MVP race foe, and Perez goes against the only other officially named captain in the league (both are Judge).
Baltimore Orioles // Record after the All-Star Break: 33-33
This is the first record on this list that points in the wrong direction. The Orioles went 58-38 before the All-Star Break. They’re .500 since. They’ve endured a constant stream of injuries to pitchers and position players. They lost 10 wins from their previous season’s total. They fell out of their AL East perch. And yet, here they are. They’re young like the Tigers, they have a shortstop phenom like the Royals, and they have a former Astros front office brain building another team capable of a long postseason streak. They earned their second straight postseason spot in the first 96 games and held onto it in the last 66.
The story if they beat the Royals: development isn’t linear, momentum is what you make it, and this team is just getting started.
The story after they lost to the Royals: questioning development, questioning moves, and questioning why the tear-down-to-rebuild process has led to zero postseason wins. (I’ll add “so far” here, but that’s only for those willing to let the process continue after sputtering ends to the last two seasons.)
New York Mets // Record since June 12: 61-36
The Mets entered their Grimace Era on June 12. The purple McDonald’s mascot threw out the first pitch and became an unofficial Mets mascot. Fans wore costumes and posted memes. The Mets kept winning. Francisco Lindor threatened Shohei Ohtani’s place as default MVP. They won a classic in Game 1 of Monday’s makeup Hurricane Helene doubleheader against Atlanta to make the postseason. Grimace has nothing and everything to do with this.
The story if they beat the Brewers: a season built on vibes is actually a bunch of good baseball players, including a somehow still underrated MVP candidate; [update] Pete Alonso and his playoff pumpkin and his three-run homer in the top of the ninth added more vibes for the Phillies to deal with in the next round.
Milwaukee Brewers // Record since they traded their ace, lost their GM to a bigger market, and watched their manager leave for a division rival: 93-69
Logic says the Brewers should’ve taken a step back. Corbin Burnes led Baltimore’s rotation, not Milwaukee’s. David Stearns made moves for the Mets and Craig Counsel took the helm for the Cubs — both teams with bigger budgets and better expectations. The Small Market Team That Could chugged their way to the NL Central crown with little trouble.
The story if they beat the Mets: it’s not the size of the market, it’s the size of your heart (and the intelligent moves that keep good players around a team with lesser resources).
The story after they lost to the Mets: heartache for a team that remains excellent then falters (also, closer Devin Williams possibly tipping his devastating Airbender changeup to Alonso).
Atlanta Braves // Record after May 26: 59-53
The theme of the 2024 Braves was injuries. Ronald Acuña Jr tore his left ACL on May 26. He’s the 2023 NL MVP, and he went down after the Atlanta started 30-20, a 97-win pace. His injury is the easiest dividing line in the season, but he’s one of many Braves stars to miss time. Catcher Sean Murphy returned the day after Acuña left after straining oblique on Opening Day. Starter Spencer Strider’s Cy Young campaign ended after one start. Center fielder Michael Harris missed two months with a strained hamstring. Third baseman Austin Riley’s season ended on August 18 when a fastball broke his hand. Starter Chris Sale shocked the league by winning the pitching Triple Crown, then missed a start in Game 162 with back spasms and got left off the Wildcard roster. 59-53 looks pretty good in light of all those IL trips.
The story if they beat the Padres: Alex Anthopoulos can build a super team and also collect pieces to fill gaps to keep them in contention
The story after they lost to the Padres: this team was a shadow of it original roster, and, unlike it 2021, AA couldn’t duct tape it enough to keep the ship afloat.
San Diego Padres // Record over their final 81 games: 52-29
Over the first 81, the Padres went 41-40. The current Padres, a mad science experiment of baseball culture, couldn’t turn yet another star-laden roster into a dominant record. In the season following owner Peter Seidler’s death, the trade of generational hitting talent Juan Soto, the defection of manager Bob Melvin to San Francisco, and the departures of closer Josh Hader and Cy Young winner Blake Snell, they sputtered. Until they didn’t. I couldn’t tell you a specific difference. Yes, they added eventual batting champ Luis Arraez and built a nasty bullpen at the trade deadline. But that was later in July. The most frequent reasons I could dig up for their success: making contact, doing the little things, having fun. That’s just baseball, not mad science.
The story if they beat the Braves: this Padres team might finally have the right formula to match results with ambitions and fan fervor [update] and it’s time for Padres-Dodgers baseball.